Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-12-14T00:27:53

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux, as observed by GOES-16, is expected to be Background to Moderate levels initially. The arrival of the fast winds of CH34, and then CH32, through day 1 and 2 (14th and 15th), has the potential to increase the flux with persistently High flux possible by late day 3 or day 4 (15th or 16th), although confidence remains Low for this.

The associated 24 hour fluence is expected to persist below the Active level day 1 and day 2, but with an increasing chance of rising above by the end of day 4. This is supported by REFM which maintains fluence below the Active threshold.