Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-01-14T00:28:49

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 has been predominantly at background levels, just temporarily reaching moderate levels. Flux levels will remain below the alert level (1000 pfu) until after the arrival of the fast wind of CH44. This is forecast to occur tomorrow (15th) with a subsequent increase likely through day 3 (16th) but more especially through day 4 (17th) with alert levels likely to be reached. 

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold for much of the period, but with a chance of reaching the Active threshold by the end of day 3 (16th), and then likely to reach the Active threshold during day 4 (17th). The Met Office REFM output is currently giving good guidance, showing the fluence gradually increasing whilst remaining below the Active threshold, during the first 3 days of the forecast period.