Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-01-20T12:31:58

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux, as measured by GOES-16 at GEO, is currently High after recent fast wind and CME enhancements. In the absence of any CME arrivals, these high levels would be expected to persist for much of the period, with just a gradual declining trend. However there is a chance that any CME that does glance across the Earth will bring a noticeable dropout, with levels falling to background and perhaps only recovering to Moderate with peak High levels. There are three potential such CME arrivals, early day 1 (20th) around midnight day 2 (21st) into day 3 (22nd) and again day 4 (23rd). The first two of these are low confidence, but the third is anticipated but expected to be weaker. Despite this, a drop out in flux is likely by day 4 (23rd), with a chance of occurring before that. Two further CMEs with possible Earth directed components, from the M5 flare and a filament eruption shortly after, are awaiting model analysis.

The associated fluence is currently Active (above 1e8 integrated pfu) and expected to persist at this level, but with an increasing chance of falling below due to any flux drop out that occurs, and likely falling below later day 4 (23rd) with the arrival of the third CME. This persistent high flux is supported by REFM, although absolute values indicated by the model are considered too high.