Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-01-19T12:14:38

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has exceeded the 1e3pfu High level and is expected to occasionally breach this value for the next four days, especially during the diurnal maximum. This is in response to the ongoing high speed stream. 24-hour integrated fluence is expected to remain above the Active threshold, at least for days 1-3 (19th-21st). Though confidence drops markedly with the potential complication of the incoming CMEs which may affect Earth in the coming days.

The current level of response in high energy electrons is greater than that seen on last rotation in reaction to CH44's predecessor. REFM guidance is considered to be reasonably good at present, with levels mostly above the 1e8 integrated pfu threshold.