MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-02-18T12:32:27
High energy electron flux is expected to follow a similar diurnal trend to that seen at present into the UTC weekend in the absence of any expected external drivers. This is likely to respond upwards in the wake of geomagnetic activity from coronal holes 55 and 56, with much of any rise likely outside of the coming four days.
REFM's largely flat indicated trend is supportive of this initial idea, with any uptick outside its three-day forecast range.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-02-18T12:32:27 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 40% | 1% |