MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-02-17T12:16:11
Electron flux reached High levels (>1000pfu) yesterday (16th) and the corresponding fluence is above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. Over the next couple of days these should steadily decrease to background levels, under the influence of a slow wind regime, with REFM output offering good guidance. The possibility of increased geomagnetic activity later in the week would also aid in the reduction.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-02-17T12:16:11 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 70% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |