Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-02-10T12:16:06

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has returned to high (>1e3pfu) levels after a fall overnight for the first time in several days due to a weak CME arrival. It is likely that peak levels will be lower than previous days. Following this CME arrival confidence in the behaviour of the electron flux decreases, as this depends on the extent of any initial suppression caused by the CME arrival, and also on the level of charging that may then occur due to CME effects. It seems probable that levels will be lower than previous days, but this is low confidence. 

24-hour fluence values are expected to remain above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold through day 1 (10 Feb), but on a declining trend. Thereafter it is likely that there will be a continuation in the decline, at least for the first couple of days, but a recovery is possible later. The probabilities represent the uncertainty in the level of decline and then the speed of any recovery.