Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-03-13T00:14:11

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux is currently at background levels, after being suppressed due to recent CME arrivals. A further CME arrival is expected late on Day 1 or early on Day 2 (13-14 Mar). So whilst an increase in electron levels is possible but unlikely through Day 1, the CME arrival will then suppress electron levels once again. Some charging from the higher wind speeds of the CME is possible however, and as the CME effects wane through Days 3 and 4 (15-16 Mar), then electron flux levels may start to increase.

The corresponding fluence is expected to be below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) through much of this period, with an increase possible through Days 3 and 4.