Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-03-11T13:11:34

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux is currently at background to moderate levels, but is likely to rebound to reach High levels again today and also tomorrow, especially at the peaks of the diurnal cycles. During days 3 and 4 (13th and 14th), with an likely increase in geomagnetic activity, the electron flux is expected to decrease to background to moderate levels again.

The corresponding fluence will start above Active levels (1e8 integrated flux) before decreasing below Active through day 2 or 3, although confidence is low regarding this.

The REFM is currently considering to be offering reasonable guidance, showing a decreasing trend in the forecast, although this trend is considered to be too fast.