Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-03-04T13:07:11

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) has been at background to moderate levels during the past 24 hours, with background to slightly elevated solar wind speeds. Through much of the period HSS from coronal hole features are expected to reach Earth, maintaining slightly elevated winds for much of the time.

The high energy electron flux and fluence is expected to remain at background to moderate levels today and tomorrow, then increasing to predominantly moderate levels, with occasional breaches of the high level (1000 pfu) possible at the peaks of the diurnal cycles, during days 3 and 4 (6th and 7th). However, confidence is low regarding this, as flux levels may be tempered by any CME arrival. The corresponding fluence is expected to show an increasing trend, whilst persisting below the Active (1e8 integrated flux) threshold. The Met Office REFM model is therefore considered to be offering good guidance.