Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-02-26T00:17:23

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has reached moderate levels at the diurnal maxima in recent days, with an increasing trend in the diurnal peak. With earth expected to be affected by various high speed streams in the coming days further charging will occur. Any CIR associated with these arrivals may cause temporary suppressions, however a general increasing trend is most probable over coming days, but with some variation in the peak values day to day. Associated electron fluence is likely to rise due to charging from the various high speed streams, but will probably stay just below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. Confidence is low however, due to the uncertainty surrounding the charging / suppression cycle of several high speed streams in the coming days.