Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-03-28T00:14:50

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES-16 at GEO is currently at Background levels, but may rise once the high speed stream from CH69 starts to wane. This is further complicated by a possible CME arrival early Day 1 (28 Mar), likely causing flux values to remain suppressed at first. Once this has passed, then a rising trend in electron flux values is possible through the coming days, perhaps reaching High levels at the diurnal peaks by Days 3 and 4 (30-31 Mar). That said, there was little electron response to this feature on the last rotation, although there was a later response to a second HSS. However, this second feature is no longer present on the disc.

The associated 24 hour fluence may follow an erratic rising trend through the next four days, although levels are likely to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. REFM is considered to be giving reasonable guidance at the present time, showing a rising trend peaking below Active levels.