MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-03-21T00:44:21
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed at GEO by GOES-16 is currently at predominantly background levels, with any significant enhancement in the near term unlikely. There is still the possibility of interaction with CH66/- on day 1 (21 March), however confidence is low. The next potential enhancement may come from CH67/+ on day 4 (24 March), but this is also unlikely to raise electron levels enough to reach the Active fluence threshold in the forecast period.
The general trend on REFM is currently assessed as ok to follow for now.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-03-21T00:44:21 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |