MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-03-13T13:13:45
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed at GEO by GOES-16, is currently at background levels. Recent CME arrival has the potential to elevate electron numbers, with the potential for moderate to high flux developing day 2 (14th), once any geomagnetic activity subsides. Elevated solar winds are then expected to gradually ease, with no other notable enhancements currently forecast.
The associated 24 hour electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active threshold, but with a slight chance of rising above day 3 and day 4 (15th and 16th) due to any enhancement from the CME arrival on the 13th. REFM is giving good guidance at first, but will not take account of the recent CME arrival, with poor guidance likely from the 14th onward.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-03-13T13:13:45 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |