MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-03-06T13:10:39
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been at Normal Background to Moderate levels during the past 24 hours.
The high energy electron flux is expected tois expected to rise over the next few days. Notwithstanding any possible CME influences. The 1000pfu High threshold is expected to be breached near the diurnal maximum.
This, in turn, should result in an increase in fluence levels, with REFM considered to be underestimating the possibilty of the 1e8 integrated electron fluence Active level being reached.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-03-06T13:10:39 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 50% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 60% | 1% |