Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-02-05T00:25:42

Two high speed streams are due to connect with the Earth, one today and another tomorrow, which are likely to further distort the radiation belts and redistribute electrons away from the belts. As associated geomagnetic activity declines, especially late in the period, there is an increasing chance of the high energy flux exceeding the High (1000 pfu) threshold, with generally High flux values possible through much of day 4 (8th).

Electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold today, then increasing to breach the Active threshold either tomorrow or more likely day 3 (7th). Therefore the Met Office REFM model is considered to be giving good guidance.