MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-01-05T12:22:39
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 is currently at predominately moderate levels, but expected to see peak values getting close to 1e3pfu on diurnal maximums since the solar wind has now relaxed which may allow the peak radiation belt flux to expand outward to GEO (where GOES is measuring it). The associated 24 hour fluence is currently below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold and will likely remain below through the period, albeit rising slightly day on day.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-01-05T12:22:39 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |