Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-01-07T00:15:41

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 is currently at predominately moderate levels, but diurnal peak values are expected to be close to, or temporarily just exceed, the High threshold of 1e3pfu. This is especially likely today and day 4 (9th), while expected slightly enhanced geomagnetic activity suppresses the electron count during day 2.

The electron fluence is expected to remain below the Active level (1e8 integrated pfu). Met Office REFM guidance appears to be offering good guidance, keeping the fluence below the Active threshold, but a generally steady or even gently rising trend is preferred against the REF model's decreasing trend.