Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-01-08T00:14:46

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 is currently at moderate levels, but diurnal peak values may be close to, or temporarily just exceed, the High threshold on Day 1 (08 Jan). The expected arrival of a high speed stream from CH43/- later on Day 1 is likely to suppress flux levels as the radiation belts are compressed. An increase is then possible from Day 3 (10 Jan) if any charging has occurred as the belts de-compress.

The electron fluence is most likely to remain below the Active level (1e8 integrated pfu). A decrease is expected late Day 1 into Day 2, before an increase may occur from Day 3 onwards, with a chance of reaching the Active threshold. REFM is showing a general decreasing trend, but this is due to the fact CH43 was not present on the last rotation. As such, REFM is not currently giving good guidance beyond the end of Day 2.