MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2021-12-31T00:11:32
High energy (greater than 2MeV) electron flux levels are at background and are likely to stay at these levels through day 1 due recent reductions due to the onset of the high speed stream from coronal hole 39. A further pattern of reduction and limited recovery is then likely on days 2 and 3 as the high speed stream from coronal hole 40 connects with the Earth.
Electron fluence is likely to rise during the next 24 to 36 hours as a result of the current high speed stream, but with the forecast geomagnetic enhancements, any increase will probably remain below the Active threshold.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2021-12-31T00:11:32 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |