MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-01-01T12:17:40
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to be at background levels and may be constrained by any geomagnetic activity due to the onset of the high speed stream from coronal hole 40 on day 1 (01 Jan). Electron flux values are then likely to increase, with high (1e3pfu) levels possible at the diurnal maximum through days 3 and 4 (03-04 Jan).
Electron fluence values are forecast to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, but with a rising trend on days 3 and 4.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-01-01T12:17:40 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 10% | 1% |