Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-01-31T00:17:30

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 at GEO, was at background to moderate levels, peaking at 860 pfu at 30/2010 UTC. The high energy electron flux is expected to remain at predominantly background to moderate levels, but with an increasing chance of high levels being reached at the peak of the diurnal cycles, especially towards the end of the four day period. However the incoming CME from the M1 flare originating from AR2936, will likely impact the high energy electron forecast, with a temporary reduction in probability on day 3 (2 Feb).

With only a limited flux response anticipated from either fast wind enhancement, the associated 24hr fluence is expected to remain below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) level despite an increasing trend. The Met Office REFM output supports fluence levels remaining below the Active period, and this is considered to be good guidance at this stage, although confidence reduces to low by day 4 (3 Feb).