Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-01-25T00:43:58

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux, as measured by GOES-16 at GEO, has recently run counter to expectations and has shown a slight rising trend in the absence of any reset from geomagnetic activity from either CMEs or coronal holes. This state of affairs is still felt unlikely to last, especially given that a reasonably assured coronal hole high speed stream from CH46 is now due.

Active electron fluence is expected to continue in the immediate term, but should soon be curtailed for a period under potential attack from CH46 and any CMEs. After a lull, some degree of recovery is likely, but probably not to the levels currently seen. Of lower confidence is the reaction to a second high speed stream, with STEREO A PLASTIC data currently seeing a noisy trace but with some data points in excess of 750km/s. Should this occur later this working week, a sharper upward response may show at GOES 16 high energy electrons, although confidence in this aspect is currently low. There is therefore a twin peak in risk of Active fluence - both early and late in the working week, with confidence suitably lower in the latter given the range.