Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-01-24T00:44:49

The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux, as measured by GOES-16 at GEO, has remained on a steady oscillation within High levels over the past 24 hours. This has relied on the absence of both transient and coronal hole activity over the UTC weekend. Clearly this state of affairs is unlikely to continue, with CH45 due imminently by STEREO A PLASTIC data (perhaps reaching 450km/s) and then 46 in turn.

In addition to this more assured reset from coronal hole activity, the sheer number of candidates for glancing incidence CMEs in the period should mean that continuation of Active electron fluence becomes relatively less likely with time. To this end, the falling trend suggested by REFM is tentatively accepted, even if the number of CMEs in the forecast mean that the detail of the decline from current levels is of lower confidence.