Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-01-16T12:32:03

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 has been predominantly at background to moderate levels. Flux levels are likely to rise when the radiation belts de-compress as the HSS of CH44 wanes. This feature on the previous rotation did give an electron response with flux reaching High levels. However, the possibility of a glancing blow from a CME later on Day 1 or perhaps early Day 2 (16-17 Jan), may cause an initial suppression in electron levels which means the forecast is low confidence.

The associated 24-hour electron fluence will start below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, with the possibility of an increase during this period, and may reach Active levels by Day 4 (19 Jan). The Met Office REFM output is currently giving reasonable guidance, showing an increasing trend in the fluence levels, reaching Active during Day 4 (19th Jan).