Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-01-16T00:32:26

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 has been predominantly at background levels. Flux levels are likely to rise when the radiation belts de-compress as the HSS of CH44 wanes. This feature on the previous rotation did give an electron response with flux reaching High levels. However, the possibility of a glancing blow from a CME on Day 1 or perhaps early Day 2 (16-17 Jan), may cause an initial suppression in electron levels which means the forecast is low confidence.

The associated 24-hour electron fluence will start below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold at first, with the possibility of an increase during this period, and may reach Active levels by Day 4 (19 Jan). The Met Office REFM output is currently giving reasonable guidance, showing an increasing trend in the fluence levels, although below Active by the end of Day 3 (18 Jan).