Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-01-08T12:34:22

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 is currently ranging between Normal Background and Moderate levels, but diurnal peak values may approach the High threshold later on Day 1 (Saturday 08 January). The expected arrival of a high speed stream from CH43/- later on Day 1 is then likely to suppress flux levels at GEO. An eventual increase in fluence is then possible from Day 3 (Monday 10 January), although the degree to which this manifests is not certain - due to CH43 being a novel feature.

The electron fluence is most likely to remain below the Active level (1e8 integrated pfu) throughout the four days, but with an increase in risk from Day 3 onwards (Monday 10 January), with an eventual Chance of reaching the Active threshold by the end of the period.

Modelling available to MOSWOC is not felt likely to be representative in the current set-up, given the non-persistent coronal hole that dominates the geomagnetic forecast.