MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-02-08T00:14:12
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has remained at High levels, peak 6.35e3 pfu at 07/1720 UTC, and is expected to continue at mainly high levels until the arrival of 6th Feb CME on day 2 (9th). The CME is likely to significantly redistribute electrons when it arrives, with the current Active fluence likely to continue until this time. Thereafter, confidence becomes low, with the forecast dependant on subsequent CME effects. It is currently assessed as more likely that Fluence will drop below the Active threshold for days 3 and 4 (10th and 11th), rather than remain above. There are no further persistent features to re-elevate electron flux counts in the period, although a degree of recovery is possible before the UTC weekend.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-02-08T00:14:12 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 99% | 5% |
| Day 2 | 90% | 5% |
| Day 3 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 40% | 1% |