MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-02-06T00:16:53
The two high speed streams connecting with Earth are likely to further distort the radiation belts and redistribute electrons within the belts. As associated geomagnetic activity declines there is an increasing chance of higher energy flux values which will exceed the High (1000 pfu) threshold, with generally High flux values through the period.
Electron fluence levels starting the four day period below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold increasing to breach the Active threshold by day 2 (07 Feb), and currently the upward trend as depicted by the Met Office REFM model is considered to be good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-02-06T00:16:53 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 70% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 90% | 5% |
| Day 3 | 90% | 5% |
| Day 4 | 80% | 5% |