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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-03-09T00:34:32

The high energy electron flux is expected to persist at High levels but with a chance of drop-out from any of the CME arrivals. The associated 24-hour fluence (greater than 1e8 integrated pfu) is expected to remain Active through much of the period, but with increased uncertainty due to the potential CMEs.

As the Met Office REFM is unaware of potential CME's it is not considered to be a useful source of information, although it does serve to highlight the expected waning trend should all the forecast CMEs miss.

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2022-03-09T00:34:32
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 100% 1%
Day 2 80% 1%
Day 3 60% 1%
Day 4 40% 1%