Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-04-08T00:11:18

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV), as observed by GOES-16 at GEO, has eased back to Moderate levels and is expected to persist at similar levels through much of the period. However, the flux may briefly exceed the High threshold (1000 pfu) at the peak of the diurnal cycle today, and again during day 4 (11th) as a result of weak coronal hole influence from CH72.

The associated 24 hour fluence has fallen below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold and is expected to remain below through the forecast period, although with a rising trend through day 4 (11th). The Met Office REFM model is therefore considering to be giving good guidance.