Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-04-09T00:20:18

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV), as observed by GOES-16 at GEO, has declined to Normal Background levels and is expected to persist at similar levels through much of the period. However, the flux may exceed the High threshold (1000 pfu) at the peak of the diurnal cycle during day 3 and 4 (11th and 12th) as a result of the arrival of any fast wind from CH72 either late day 1 or day 2 (9th or 10th).

The associated 24 hour fluence is below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold and is likely to remain below through the forecast period, although a rising trend is probable days 3 and 4 (11th), giving a chance of rising above. The Met Office REFM output is currently considered to be giving good guidance in the trend through days 1-2 (9th and 10th), but becomes lower confidence day 3 (11th) due to uncertainties around the arrival of the fast wind.