Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-04-10T00:12:52

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV), as observed by GOES-16 at GEO, has been mainly at normal background levels through the last 24 hours. Recent CME arrivals and a likely HSS arrival is expected to keep flux levels suppressed at first, before a possible rise through Days 2 and 3 (11-12 Apr) in response to the HSS. Flux may peak at High levels during this time, before a further possible CME arrival on Day 4 (13 Apr) may suppress flux levels once again.

The associated 24 hour fluence is below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold and is likely to remain below through the forecast period, although a rising trend is possible on Days 2 and 3. A decline is then likely on Day 4 in response to possible CME effects. REFM will not be taking account of CME effects, or the HSS as this is a non-recurrent feature, and as such is unlikely to be giving good guidance.