Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-03-10T13:06:21

The high energy (2 MeV) electron flux as observed by GOES16 is currently at High levels, and is Expected to persist at these values until the arrival of any CME on day one (Thursday 10 March). The occurrence and strength of any arriving CME is low confidence, however if this occurs a drop-out in observed flux to background levels is expected. Any recovery is likely to be muted later day two, with a chance of Moderate to High flux levels returning from the UTC weekend onward. The chances of these levels persisting throughout the four-day period is now slightly reduced as a result of yet another marginal CME rounding out the forecast.

The associated 24-hour fluence is expected to persist at High levels to end the current working week UTC, due to the delayed response to the drop out caused by the 24-hour summation period. Through day two, Friday 11 March, fluence should most likely fall below this threshold.

REFM is currently poor guidance, as it is both underestimating current flux and is also by nature not able to take account of upcoming CME arrivals.