MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-03-18T00:26:15
The high energy (greater than 2 MeV) electron flux as observed at GEO by GOES-16 is currently at predominantly moderate levels. No definite sources of enhancement are currently expected in the period until the next coronal hole high speed stream from CH66/- arrives, most likely day 3 (20th).
The electron fluence is currently well below the Active (1e8 integrated flux) level, and expected to remain below the Active threshold, but with a continued rising trend.
The Met Office REFM model is currently underestimating the fluence, and with a flat rather than rising trend, but does keep the fluence below the Active threshold over the next three days. Therefore the REFM model is considered to be offering good guidance.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-03-18T00:26:15 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |