Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-04-17T00:20:09

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as observed by GOES-16 at GEO has rising to Moderate to High levels since 16/1200 UTC. Peak values are expected to rise day 1 (17th), but likely continuing Moderate to High through the period. Dropouts are possible with induced geomagnetic activity as fast wind arrivals occur, although the timing and strength of these are low confidence, and possible throughout. Recovery of flux levels are likely to follow any dropouts, with Moderate to High levels continuing through the period, but with decreased confidence for reaching high levels, especially day 3 (19th) onward. 

The associated 24-hr electron fluence is currently rising, with REFM giving good guidance for the expected trend, although observations are currently running higher than this forecasts. Consequently Fluence is likely to rise above the Active (1e8) threshold day 1 (17th), peaking on the day 2 (18th), before declining again. However confidence becomes low by day 3 (19th), with potential fast wind arrivals and subsequent flux drop outs possible.