Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-05-17T00:17:39

High energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) as measured by GOES-16 at GEO is currently at background levels, but may rise to Moderate levels over the next few days due to fast wind influence from CH81/+ . Any potential enhancement to the solar wind environment from CH82, most likely by day 3 (19th), could then increase flux levels to Moderate to High by day 4 (20th). 

The corresponding electron fluence is therefore expected to show an upward trend through the period, however on balance will most likely continue below the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold. This is reflected by current REFM output and in the probabilities table above.