MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-05-24T00:19:24
The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to vary between moderate and high levels in the diurnal cycle through days 1 and 2, under the influence of the high speed stream from coronal hole 82. This is expected to wane through this period, with a steady reduction in the peak values. Potential geomagnetic storms due to the next forecast high speed stream may inhibit electron increases on days 3 and 4 (26 and 27 May).
Electron fluence is likely to follow a declining peak during the next four days due to the forecast decline in electron flux peaks.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-05-24T00:19:24 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 1% | 1% |