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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-05-24T00:19:24

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to vary between moderate and high levels in the diurnal cycle through days 1 and 2, under the influence of the high speed stream from coronal hole 82. This is expected to wane through this period, with a steady reduction in the peak values. Potential geomagnetic storms due to the next forecast high speed stream may inhibit electron increases on days 3 and 4 (26 and 27 May).

Electron fluence is likely to follow a declining peak during the next four days due to the forecast decline in electron flux peaks.

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2022-05-24T00:19:24
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 10% 1%
Day 2 10% 1%
Day 3 5% 1%
Day 4 1% 1%