Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-05-23T00:11:09

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) rose to Moderate levels, peaking at 953ppcc at 22/1615UTC, as a result of the fast wind from CH82/+ charging the radiation belts. It is expected to fluctuate between Low and Moderate levels over the next few days, perhaps exceeding 1000 pfu during the diurnal peak at times.

On the previous rotation, the fast solar wind regime proved incapable of resulting in Active 24-hour integrated electron fluence. The current solar wind enhancement from CH82/+ is slightly enhanced in comparison, so while flux may increasingly trouble the High boundary, on balance it should most likely average out below Active, even as geomagnetic activity rom CH82 wanes into the forthcoming working week.