MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-05-25T00:13:59
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has declined during the last 24 hours, with the latest peak lower than for the previous day. This trend is expected to continue for the next two days, with a more significant drop to background then likely on Day 2 or 3 (26th or 27th May) due to geomagnetic effects of coronal hole high speed stream connection(s). A rising trend is possible from Day 4 (28th May), but this is dependent on the extent to which the high speed stream(s) distort the radiation belts.
Electron fluence is now likely to have peaked for the period, with a declining trend through Day 3. A slightly rising trend is possible at the end of the period, but the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold is unlikely to be breached.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-05-25T00:13:59 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 10% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 5% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 1% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 5% | 1% |