Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-06-24T00:09:03

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2 MeV) should show a gradual rising trend in the four days, perhaps with some temporary suppression on Day 2 (25 June) due to a potential CIR from a high speed stream arrival. Wind speeds are expected to rise early on Day 2 as we see the high speed stream(s) from CH93/- and CH94/-. Electron flux is currently peaking just at High levels, and a rise is likely in response to the expected wind speed increase on Day 2. 

Corresponding electron fluence is therefore expected to be fairly steady through Day 1 (24 June), perhaps with a temporary dip on Day 2, before showing a rising trend through Days 3 and 4 (26-27 June). Active (1e8 integrated pfu) becomes likely by Day 4. REFM is considered to be showing reasonable guidance at present, with a rise to just below the Active threshold by Day 3.