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MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit

Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-06-01T00:21:37

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) are varying between moderate and high, with sustained periods at high levels within the diurnal cycle. As the high speed stream from coronal hole 84 starts to decline, the peaks in electron flux are also expected to slowly decline. This reduction may then be arrested by the establishment of the high speed stream from coronal hole 86, although a sharp initial drop is possible due to any significant geomagnetic enhancements. 

Electron fluence is expected to be mainly above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold, but with a declining trend dependent upon the strength of the connection to the high speed stream from coronal hole 86.

 
High Energy Electron Event Forecast
Issued 2022-06-01T00:21:37
Probability of threshold exceedance
 ActiveV.Active
Day 1 100% 10%
Day 2 90% 20%
Day 3 70% 10%
Day 4 60% 5%