Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-07-01T00:01:21

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) has been at high levels through the last 24 hours and is only expected to decline slowly through the next four days as the solar wind continues to ease. The arrival of the weak CME on Day 2 (02nd July) may cause levels to drop out but confidence is low as the associated velocity and density may not be strong enough to redistribute the electrons or distort the radiation belts. There should be a trend for the peak values to reduce through the next four days.

Electron fluence values are forecast to display a decreasing trend through the next four days and eventually fall below the Active threshold, perhaps on Day 3 (03rd) but more likely on Day 4 (04th). Again ,confidence is low. The REFM is not considered to provide good guidance on this occasion, as the sharp decline displayed on Days 2 & 3 is associated to a glancing blow received from a CME on the last rotation. While a decline is expected, it should be much shallower.