Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-06-02T00:16:52

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 has generally been at High (greater than 1000pfu) due to the recent fast wind enhancement. With no further notable disturbances forecast for the solar wind environment around Earth, these mainly High levels are expected to persist, although peak values are likely to decline gradually through the period with more prolonged periods of Moderate levels possible at the daily minimum.

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is currently Active (greater than 1e8) and expected to persist at this level through the period, but with a slightly increasing chance of falling below by day 4 (4th). This is supported by REFM for the initial 24 hours, however beyond this REFM is likely reducing values too quickly.