Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-06-03T00:08:30

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) as observed by GOES-16 has been at High (greater than 1000pfu) levels through the last 24 hours due to the recent fast wind enhancement. With no further notable disturbances forecast for the solar wind environment at Earth through to Day 3 (05 June), these mainly High levels are expected to persist, although peak values are likely to gradually decline. However, either later on Day 3 or early on Day 4 (06 June) the potential for CME arrival(s) will bring the chance of flux levels dropping out.

The associated 24 hour electron fluence is currently Active (greater than 1e8 integrated pfu) and is likely to persist at this level through the period, but any CME arrival could cause a dropout either later on Day 3 or early on Day 4. REFM is showing a fairly rapid decline in fluence levels, which is thought to be too fast as electron levels usually take a period of time to decline in the absence of CME influence.