Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-05-03T00:19:17

The high energy electron flux is expected to be close to the high (1e3 pfu) threshold through the next four days with no significant geomagnetic activity forecast. As there are no expected significant inputs into the radiation belts, the magnitude of the electron flux is likely to slowly decay, albeit still reaching high levels on diurnal peaks.

Due to no significant inputs and a steadily declining electron flux, the electron fluence is increasingly unlikely to exceed the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) through the next four days. This is in line with the general trend indicated by the MOSWOC REFM model.