MOSWOC high energy electron forecast for geostationary orbit
Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-05-04T00:27:44
High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to vary between moderate and high levels through the next four days, due to the input into the belts from the recent high speed stream. There is likely to be a slight decrease in the diurnal highs, but with peaks still above the high threshold through the next four days.
Electron fluence has followed a rising trend during the last 24 hours in response to the high fluence, with this expected to remain above the Active (1e8 integrated pfu) threshold for much of 04 May, followed by a decline through the period.
| High Energy Electron Event Forecast | ||
|---|---|---|
| Issued 2022-05-04T00:27:44 | ||
| Probability of threshold exceedance | ||
| Active | V.Active | |
| Day 1 | 100% | 1% |
| Day 2 | 40% | 1% |
| Day 3 | 20% | 1% |
| Day 4 | 20% | 1% |