Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-04-27T00:29:29

The high energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to vary between background and moderate levels on days 1 and much of day 2 in a benign solar wind environment. The CIR ahead of the next high speed stream is then likely to compress the radiation belts and redistribute electrons, leading to a drop in the flux. A recovery in counts is them expected through days 3 and 4, with the electron flux increasingly likely to reach the high level (1e3 pfu) on diurnal highs by day 4.

Electron fluence values are likely to remain below the Active threshold (1e8 integrated pfu) through the period, but with a rising trend on days 3 and 4.