Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-05-05T00:36:13

High energy electron flux (greater than 2MeV) is expected to vary between moderate and high, or near high, levels through the next four days, due to the input into the belts from the recent high speed stream. There is likely to be a slight decrease in the diurnal highs, but with peaks nearing, or exceeding, the high threshold mainly early in the period.

During the last 24 hours electron fluence followed a rising trend, briefly peaking at Active levels at midnight UTC, before dropping below the Active threshold. Fluence is now expected to see a slow declining trend through the period, as shown by REFM output. However, observed fluence values are likely to continue above raw REFM values for the short term.