Forecaster summary - Issued 2022-04-05T00:17:31

High energy electron flux showed a slight diurnal increase in its oscillation over the UTC day of Monday 04 April, although the character was a little erratic in tandem with the behaviour of the solar wind. Flux levels have proved unusually resilient to recent observed Active Kp, and a slight increase in observed levels towards midweek cannot be ruled out, especially as geomagnetic activity should now reduce as CH70 weakens further. As with recent forecasts, 24-hour integrated fluence may just exceed Active until the arrival of the 03/1500UTC CME around 06/1200UTC, with the added caveat of a second unassessed CME lowering confidence in the electron forecast still further.

It is felt that current flux levels may not be repeated in the less supportive solar wind environment that should surround these possible transients, and the overall risk of Active therefore shows a step-wise fall after midweek UTC.